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The 2021 winter harvest begins with good advantages for producers, according to projections by analysts and sector representatives. Lower cost in bags of wheat; the appreciation of the value of wheat above the historical average; the genetic safety of cultivars; The adequate supply of seeds on the market and the strategy for sharing the fixed costs of soybean farming are among the factors that are motivating producers to increase the planted area.
According to the researcher in the Rural Economy sector at Fundação ABC, Cláudio Kapp Júnior, an important advantage for the producer this year is that the average price of the crop has higher prices at the time of budget formation. “In the 2021 harvest, the farmer will save an average of 390 kg of wheat grain per hectare to pay the cost. Furthermore, there is an expectation of commercialization at good prices, which means that the expected result increases from approximately R$ 527 to R$ 1,240, that is, R$ 713 more per hectare”, he explains.
Cláudio highlights that the balance is positive for the producer this year despite the increase of approximately 30% in the composition of wheat's variable costs. The value of variable costs increased from R$ 2,461 in 2020 to R$ 3,204 in 2021 for the ABC Foundation's region of operation, but the quoted price paid increased by 60% in the period.
The calculation to predict prices carried out by Fundação ABC is based on the relationship between the cost raised and the quantity of bags required for the cost, considering the price environment at the time in which the producer is quoting the purchase of inputs. “It is necessary to consider that this value may vary, depending on the marketing strategy. Unlike expectations at the time of cost quotations, if the producer left to sell the 2020 harvest between the months of November and February 2021, he obtained a higher result than expected.
Likewise, for the 2021 harvest, the price possibilities actually practiced for those who sell in the sequence may be higher or lower”, highlights Cláudio. The ABC Foundation survey considered a perspective of costs and results in 1 hectare of wheat crops in the 2020 and 2021 harvests, using market price references presented from September 2019 to February 2020 for the 2020 harvest and September 2020 to February 2021 for the 2021 harvest.
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Optimistic outlook in Paraná
Paraná also projects a good harvest even with an increase in costs in reais per bag, given the remunerative data and lower costs for a bag of wheat this year. The estimate from the Department of Rural Economy (Deral) of Paraná should be released at the end of March, but according to the coordinator of the Statistics division of the Department of Rural Economy (Deral) of the State, Carlos Hugo Godinho, it is estimated that the area of 2021 should be larger than the 2020 harvest, once again exceeding 1.1 million ha. “We even hope for a larger area and, especially, an increase in production because in 2020 the harvest was significantly affected by the drought. The initial estimate predicts production above 3.5 million tons,” he said.
For Marcelo Sumiya, Technical Assistance manager at Coamo, even with an increase of 31.5% in costs in reais per bag compared to 2020, considering an estimated productivity of 3.5 kg/ha, the conversion into bags in 2021 shows a reduction of approximately 17% in the cost of wheat bags less than last year. In 2020, a bag of wheat in Campo Mourão/PR was sold at R$ 48 and now the price is R$ 77. “It is a scenario where the cost in bags per hectare is lower compared to 2020 and also the exchange ratio between the price of the day and the cost since the 2015 harvest.”, he assesses.
Area should exceed 1.1 million hectares in RS
With optimistic forecasts, the tendency is for the sown area to also increase. “Having a supply of seeds, as the market indicates that we do, we can reach 1.1 million hectares in 2020”, projects the vice-president of Farsul, Hamilton Jardim, who coordinates the commission for wheat and other winter crops at the Farsul is president of the sectoral chamber of the winter crops production chain of the Ministry of Agriculture. Analyzing the prospects for supply and prices paid, Hamilton says that the current harvest has been negotiated by wheat producers with a profit margin above the historical average. “If we analyze the price of wheat last year and compare it with the present and the future, this increase is much greater than the increase in production costs. So the exchange ratio becomes much more favorable to the producer.
Therefore, the scenario is highly positive”, he explains. The current reality is also one of greater security, very different from years ago when producers worked with uncertain values. “The producer can now close prices in several places in Rio Grande do Sul for delivery in November, December, January or February. The scenario is very good”, he projects. Hamilton comments on the wheat production costs published by the Federation of Agricultural Cooperatives of the State of Rio Grande do Sul (FecoAgro/RS), which indicate an increase of 21.77% compared to 2020. “The composition of costs needs to take into account the inheritance left by the care of the land for the next crops.
The fixed cost, which is that related to soil care and depreciation of machines, is diluted by what is harvested in excess after wheat farming, in the same plots that received special attention and management from the producer in winter”. In terms of cost, for Hamilton, the rise in the dollar was responsible for the increase in costs. “Diesel oil went up, inputs went up, consequently this rain of production costs, in our view, was around 25%”. Hamilton reiterates that in terms of costs based on grains, the farmer's currency, the relationship is very much in favor of the producer, which should explain a possible increase in area in the state.
* with information from Biotrigo press office
By: Eliza Maliszewski | agrolink
