Expectations for growth in grain exports from Ukraine

Expectativas de crescimento nas exportações de grãos pela Ucrânia
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A recent report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects an optimistic scenario for Ukraine's grain exports. An increase in sales is expected in 2023/24 with the resumption of activities in Black Sea ports.

Impact of attacks

Russian exit from BSGI in 2023 led to attacks on infrastructure grains in Ukraine, including ports and the Danube River. These actions meant that, in September, the total volume of grain exports fell drastically to 2 million tons. However, exports rose to 5.2 million tons in December, due to the reduction in attacks and the opening of the Ukrainian corridor.

Recovery and forecasts in exports

The USDA anticipates robust growth in exports of grains of Ukraine for the 2023/24 season. Forecasts include an 8% increase in corn, reaching 29.2 million tonnes, as well as a 3% increase in wheat, to 17.7 million tonnes. In addition, barley production is expected to increase by 22% (3.3 million tonnes) and rye exports tenfold, reaching 170,000 tonnes.

On the other hand, a high export rate observed in December 2023 supports the positive projection. If Ukraine maintains average monthly exports of approximately 4 million tons for all grains combined by the end of the marketing year, it is likely to export the majority of the crop. Consequently, this would leave an estimated total of 5 million tonnes of grain as ending stocks for 2023/24.

Furthermore, the efficiency of export routes via the Danube River and transshipment capacity at the Port of Constanta in Romania have been increasing, providing additional opportunities to sustain export levels. These optimistic estimates assume that no significant damage will occur to port infrastructure or ships.

In summary, despite the challenges faced, Ukraine is positioned for a significant recovery in grain exports, driven by improvements in infrastructure and export logistics. This positive scenario offers an encouraging outlook for the global grain trade, with Ukraine playing a central role in this market.

Source: Oils & Fats International

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