Soybean prices have already reached strong highs on Wednesday morning (7) following the news that official representatives of the Chinese and US governments will meet this Saturday in Geneva, Switzerland, but the market lost strength early this afternoon. Around 12:30 pm (Brasília time), prices were only rising between 1.50 and 4 points in the most traded contracts, with July worth US$ 10.42 and September, US$ 10.19 per bushel.
“We always emphasize this: the agreement between the US and China could happen at any moment. The confirmation of the meeting in Switzerland between May 9 and 12 made this even more evident. The market in Chicago, of course, reacted with a rise in soybean and corn futures. It was nothing extraordinary, something out of the ordinary, that restrained excitement of someone who has seen this movie before”, says the director and market analyst at Royal Rural, Ronaldo Fernandes.
Conflict patterns and agreement expectations
The expert also highlights that, this time, it is necessary to consider that the market already knows the patterns of the conflict and, consequently, of the negotiations.
“The US will want to force the Chinese to buy more American products, especially soybeans, corn, meat, in short, anything that helps balance the American trade balance. The mystery now is to find out exactly how much the Chinese will have to buy. It is this number that will dictate Chicago's mood from now on,” he says.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chief Trade Negotiator Jamieson Greer will meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. According to experts, this could be the first step towards an effective agreement between the world's two largest economies. This comes after the tariff hike imposed by US President Donald Trump on April 2.
The market continues to monitor the weather in the US and the pace of planting for the 2025/26 US crop. It is also closely monitoring the geopolitical and macroeconomic scenarios, which go beyond the trade war between China and the US. At the same time, the market is adjusting ahead of the arrival of the new figures that the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) will release on Monday, May 12, in its new monthly supply and demand bulletin.
Source: Carla Mendes | Notícias Agrícolas
