China's soybean imports plunged to a 10-year low in April as prolonged delays in customs clearance and delays in Brazilian shipments caused by harvest slowdowns and logistics problems have disrupted the normal flow of cargo, traders and analysts said.
Total imports for the month reached 6.08 million metric tons, down 29.1% from the same period last year, marking the lowest level since 2015, according to Reuters calculations based on data from the General Administration of Customs.
Impacts on the processing sector and logistics chain
In addition, customs delays severely hampered China's oilseed processing sector from April to early May, limiting the supply of soymeal to its vast livestock industry.
It now takes 20 to 25 days for companies to transport soybean cargo from ports to crushing plants. Previously, it was just 7 to 10 days. Four traders provided the information. However, they requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue in China.
As a direct consequence, “the delays have affected crushing operations,” one source said.
In early May, several crushing plants in northern and northeastern China had to cut production. In some cases, operations were completely halted due to delays. One trader and analyst reported that several feed mills had run out of stock. As a result, these mills had to resort to spot shipments, which are more expensive.
Outlook for the coming months and market reaction
There has been no official acknowledgement of the delays, which come amid a trade war between China and its second-largest soybean supplier. Chinese customs did not immediately respond to faxed questions about the delay.
China's benchmark Dalian soymeal futures rose briefly in late April but have since retreated as expectations of Brazilian shipments pressured prices.
Although crushing activity is gradually recovering, market participants remain cautious about potential port congestion if delays persist.
From January to April, soybean arrivals totaled 23.19 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 14.6% compared to the 27.15 million tons recorded in the same period last year.
Soybean imports are expected to rebound sharply in May and June, with some Chinese analysts and traders predicting monthly figures around 11 million tonnes.
However, Brazil’s National Grain Exporters Association (Anec) said on Wednesday that total soybean exports could fall to 12.6 million tonnes in May. That decline could limit the amount available for shipment to China.
US soybean purchases decline
While the data released Friday did not provide a clear breakdown of imports by country of origin, analysts noted a trend. According to Wang Wenshen, an analyst at Shandong-based Sublime China Information, purchases from the United States continued to decline.
In the week ending May 1, net sales of soybeans to China were zero. The data refer to the 2024/25 marketing year. The information was released in the weekly reports of the United States Department of Agriculture.
Beijing’s retaliatory tariff of 125% is extremely high. In effect, it would virtually halt imports of U.S. soybeans. This would occur if no agreement is reached before the start of the marketing season later this year.
All eyes are on the upcoming meeting between Chinese and US officials in Switzerland, where US President Donald Trump hopes for progress on trade and the potential reduction of the US's 145% tariff on China.
Source: Ella Cao, Lewis Jackson, Naveen Thukral and Stephen Coates | Notícias Agrícolas
