Mercosur-EU agreement could impact brazilian economy by US$ 79 bi

Posted by Marina

The trade agreement between the Southern Common Market (Mercosur) and the European Union (EU), concluded at the end of June, is expected to impact the Brazilian economy by US $ 79 billion by 2035. The estimate, according to “Agência Brasil” is from National Confederation of Trade in Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC), which released last Friday (11) study on the issue, during the 2nd Conference of International Trade and Services of Mercosur (CI19), held at the headquarters of the entity, in Rio de Janeiro.

Considering the reduction of non-tariff barriers, the impact could reach US $ 112 billion in the period, according to the CNC. The figures are slightly below those of the Brazilian government, of US $ 87.5 billion and US $ 125 billion including non-tariff barriers in 15 years. CNC President José Roberto Tadros explained that Brazil currently holds the pro tempore presidency (temporarily) of the Mercosur Council of Chambers of Commerce (CCCM), and is therefore in a position to lead the debates on the wake up.

Exchange Ratio

“Foreign market is trade, so we are in this context. Not only in terms of trade, but also in terms of tourism, services, so this is the home to address these issues and international relations, ”he noted. CNC economist Fábio Bentes, one of those responsible for the study, explains that the amount was calculated by adding the trade balance balance, estimated at US $ 66 billion, with aggregate investment of US $ 13 billion, plus US $ 33. billion by reducing barriers such as phytosanitary to reach $ 112 billion.

“We considered Brazil's expected growth in the coming years, at around 2%, 2.5%, and Europe's slightly lower growth of 1.2%, but given the size of the US economy. This also helps to enhance the positive impact of the agreement. Another assumption is the exchange rate, between R $ 3.80 and R $ 4 by 2024, according to the Central Bank's Focus Bulletin, and then adjusted for inflation, ”he argued.

For him, the deal is historic and will benefit exporters, importers and consumers. “From the point of view of our exports, the tendency is to benefit the agro-export sector. Brazil is the second largest exporter of agricultural products to Europe and will pass the United States in a matter of two or three years. From the point of view of imports, we in commerce and services, if we have access to quality products without high tariff barriers, will import goods or services at a lower price and the population will have more competitive prices ”explained the economist.

The director of the Argentine Chamber of Commerce and Services, Carlos Arecco, stressed the importance of opening Europe to the Mercosur countries. “A market like Europe, where a quarter of the world's gross domestic product (GDP) is at stake, is a tremendously important thing. We have to work and get it right in the agreements that the governments of Mercosur and the European Union signed, [they] had 20 years to close that agreement. Now, it's up to us to take this forward. Today, commerce and service are practically 70%, 80% of business in the world, ”he said.

Also present at the conference, Lebanon's Minister of State for Foreign Trade, Hassan Mourat, explained that his country also hopes to be able to accede to this agreement with Europe, as has already been done by other Arab countries, in addition to strengthening trade and trade relations. friendship with Brazil, a country that, according to him, houses about 12 million people of Lebanese and Arab origin.

“Lebanon is doing its best to become a free zone to be able to dispose of all merchandise coming from Latin America, serving as a warehouse for other countries such as China and the Middle East. On the other hand, it [intends] to reinforce this friendship between Brazil and Lebanon and also trade and tourist relations, ”he said. The Mercosur-EU agreement still needs to be ratified by each of the 32 countries that make up the two blocs to start in force. Negotiations began in 1999.