DATAGRO revises export forecast for Brazil's soy complex to 91.90mt in 2020

Posted by Marina
The volume and revenue projections for exports of Brazil's soy complex in 2020 were updated by Consultoria DATAGRO. Total shipments were revised to 91.90 million tons compared to 93.60 million tons from the last estimate and 0.1% higher than the volume shipped in 2019 (91.78 million tons), but below the record volume of 101.35 million tons of 2018.

Specific shipments of soybeans in grain were updated by DATAGRO to 74.30 million tons, below the previous survey, but with a 0.3% increase compared to 2019, 16.70 million tons of soybean meal, with 0.2 % increase, and the volume of 900 thousand tons of soybean oil, with 13.5% retraction over the previous year.

The increase in shipments this season before 2019, despite a downward revision compared to the last estimate, follows the preliminary projections for the Brazilian harvest with the harvest virtually concluded, in addition to the positive rates of increase in world consumption, despite the crisis generated by Covid-19 , and the severe losses of the 2019 harvest in the United States.

The cut made in the projection of soy exports was related to the review previously made by DATAGRO for potential soy production in the 2019/20 harvest, which rose to 121.92 million tons compared to 123.62 million tons from the previous survey. Even so, with a 2% increase over the previous harvest (119.19 million tons).

“An important factor of uncertainty comes with the impact of African swine fever (PSA) on Chinese demand for soybeans and corn. Due to the slaughter of a large part of the pig herd, the Chinese continue to increase meat imports to meet their demand, generating additional demand for bran and corn in the supplier countries. That is the case in Brazil, ”says Flávio Roberto de França Junior, coordinator of DATAGRO Grãos.

France also lists as factors of attention the impact on the global economy generated by the Covid-19 crisis and its uncertain influence on the demand for food, the climate with the formation of a low intensity El Niño, similar to the characteristics of neutrality, in addition to the trade war between China and USA, still with final solution open.

The forecast for total revenue fell to $ 31.97 billion this year, 2.0% less than the $ 32.63 billion from the close of 2019. The analysis takes into account the partially lower average price estimates. “This projection of a mixed price scenario for the market this new year, but with a predominance of falls, is associated with the partial retraction in demand due to the crisis brought about by the new coronavirus”, points out França.