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Brazil goes against the world prospects and should increase pork production

Posted by Marina

According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's Semi-annual Global Food Markets Report in China, the expansion of African Swine Fever is largely behind an expected 20% drop in pork production to 35 million tons, after the 21% decrease already registered in 2019.

With a series of policies launched by the government to rescue the sector, hog companies have adopted advanced bio safety measures. PSA outbreaks are also behind projected falls in Vietnam and the Philippines, while a smaller pig herd is expected to reduce production in Ukraine.

In the US, negative production prospects are mainly related to interruptions in the COVID-19 market

On the other hand, moderate increases in production are expected in the EU and the United Kingdom, Brazil, the Russian Federation, Mexico and Canada. In the EU and the United Kingdom, strong import demand, mainly from China, is supporting an expansion of the sector.

In Brazil, stable feed costs and the large number of pig herds support production, while in the Russian Federation production growth is supported by large-scale investments in new breeding and processing facilities.

World pork exports are estimated at 10.6 million tonnes in 2020, an increase of 11.2% over last year, predominantly driven by greater anticipated imports from China, coupled with moderate increases in purchases from Vietnam, Philippines, Chile and Ukraine.

Exports

In China, pork imports are expected to increase 1.2 million tonnes or 42% in 2020, reaching 4.1 million tonnes, equivalent to 40% of the global pork trade volume. Likewise, imports from the Philippines and Vietnam are projected to increase mainly to compensate for production deficits caused by the PSA disease. Limited domestic supplies are also expected to increase imports from Ukraine. On the other hand, the Republic of Korea is expected to reduce its pork purchases due to a contraction in domestic sales of food services.

Much of the world's pork imports in 2020 are expected to be served by the US, EU and UK, Brazil, Canada, Mexico and Chile. Despite the expected small contraction in production, the US is likely to see its exports rise 13%, with the volume directed to China, Mexico, Japan, Canada, Republic of Korea and Australia.

In the EU and the UK, the increase in availability resulted from falling domestic pork consumption and increased production, which could lead to higher exports, especially to China, following recently signed agreements between China and the main EU suppliers.

Pork exports from Brazil may also increase, due to increased deliveries to China, although sales to other trading partners may fall.



Source: Notícias Agrícolas

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