- Posted by Marina
Confinement falls and meat prices are expected to rise in Goiás The confinement regime in Goiás is expected to gather around 750,000 oxen - the equivalent of 20% less than last year. This reduction, according to producers, is directly linked to the pandemic. Which shows that in the coming months the price of meat should increase for the consumer.
Arroba do boi may reach R $ 220 in the coming months
The containment regime in Goiás is expected to gather around 750,000 oxen - 20% less than last year. This reduction, according to producers, is directly linked to the pandemic. Which shows that in the coming months the price of meat should increase for the consumer. Safra, a consultancy specialized in Brazilian agribusiness, points out that the “arroba do boi” has already risen in several regions of the country and in Goiás it will be no different.
On the other hand, animal fattening costs are expensive. 80% of the investment in the herd is to feed the oxen. This year, the price of food was impacted, especially by corn, one of the main components of the feed, which is more expensive. The rise in the dollar and input prices also weighed on the account. Last year, the daily amount spent on feeding each animal was R $ 7.98. Now it is already at R $ 9.17.
In an interview with O Hoje, the market analyst at the Institute for the Strengthening of Agriculture in Goiás (IFAG), Marcelo Penha, explains that this may happen due to the sales pressure that beef has been suffering because of the new Coronavirus. "Depending on the economic class, if the meat is more expensive, the consumer will replace it with a cheaper one, which would be chicken or pork", he points out.
The bet, according to him, is that the increase in the arroba do boi will reach the value of R $ 220. "Brazil has become the largest exporter of meat in the world by expanding its production capacity. With the economy improving, it can do with what arroba increase even more than it is today ", he says.
At the beginning of the pandemic, there was a price increase of around R $ 50 in the arroba compared to last year. Trade also had to stop, which contributed to these changes in values. In addition, he explains, "the foreign market, such as China, for example, had to migrate consumption to beef due to swine fever", informs Marcelo.
With that, China started to like beef. This fact made the herd in Brazil gain value and result in an increase. "So the pandemic promoted this. And, in the last two weeks, with the opening of trade, people returned to work and the domestic market heated up", he stresses. According to him, the domestic market is responsible for 80% of what is produced throughout the country.
In view of the reopening of commerce in several municipalities in the state, money was added to the family budget and relief for ranchers. "It boosted the sale of ox arrobas, causing the domestic market to react. Cattle farmers, in turn, also looked for ways to circumvent the crisis." As his [cattle rancher's] production process is extensive, he can keep the oxen from six months to a year and a half. If he can hold the flock at a bad time, he does. Our scale today is fast ", he highlights.
When there is a lot of supply, negotiating with buyers can take up to two weeks. This means that the price of meat is bad, says the expert. "The producer learned that, if it is not profitable, he does not sell enough oxen and expects the price to return to normal", he stresses. The ox arrives for finishing at about 350 kg and, after 90 days, is ready for slaughter, with an average of 550 kg.
Exports will continue
The recovery of China's pig plantation after the African swine fever epidemic, which has hit the country since August 2018, will not be sufficient for the country's domestic supply until the next three years. The evaluation is by Itaú BBA's Agribusiness, Food & Beverage analyst, André Hachem. "The dynamics of exporting proteins to China is still very favorable. The import of beef and pork by China should last for at least two to three years until the reconstruction of the domestic plantation", evaluates the analyst.