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DATAGRO projects Brazilian soybean exports at 82mt in 2021 and revenue greater than 13%

Posted by Marina
Exports of soybeans by Brazil are expected to advance 1.2% in 2021 over this year, totaling 82 million tons, according to Consultoria DATAGRO. Revenue is expected to jump 13% to $ 31.57 billion. These estimates for the coming year consider preliminary projections for a record Brazilian oilseed crop of 131.69 million tonnes, the increase in world consumption and partial losses in the United States harvest.

Considering the soy complex, in addition to the forecast for grain shipments of 82 million tons, close to the 2018 record of 83.26 million tons, soy bran has an estimate of 17.80 million tons, an increase of 4.7 % in the annual comparison, and soybean oil should have a retraction of 22.7% in next year's exports over 2020, totaling a volume of 850 thousand t.

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“The projection indicated total shipments of 100.65 million tonnes for the coming year, 1.6% higher than the revised volume and forecast for the current year. We then have confirmation of the natural tendency to maintain a strong representation of the sector in the country's foreign trade ”, says Flávio Roberto de França Junior, coordinator of DATAGRO Grãos.

Despite the projection considering optimistic motivations for the jump in exports, such as an increase in the Brazilian soybean harvest next year, still positive rates of increase in world consumption and partial losses in the new United States harvest, limiting factors were also taken into account, which are still monitored, such as the African swine fever (PSA), climate before the possibility of a La Niña and the Chinese-American tensions.

In terms of export revenue, DATAGRO's projections are also predominantly positive for the next year in the soy complex. There would be US $ 31.57 billion from sales of soybeans, 13% higher than the current year, US $ 6.59 billion from bran shipments through Brazil, up 13.9% year-on-year, and US $ 629 million in oil sales, down 15.3% over the current year.

“Due to this good forecast of an increase in the total volume to be shipped, we have the indication that the total revenue to be obtained from exports of the Brazilian soy complex in 2021 is again expressive. However, initially still below the absolute record of 2018. The total revenue forecast reached US $ 38.78 billion, 12.5% ​​higher than the revised estimate for 2020 ”, points out France.