- Posted by Marina
The director of Agroconsult André Pessôa confirmed the expectation that the year 2021 should be an increase in the consumption of Brazilian soybeans, reaching a new record, reaching for the first time around 100 million tons. His statement occurred during the fifth edition of the Aprosoja / MS Circuit, conducted by the Association of Soy and Corn Producers of Mato Grosso do Sul, which this year took place online.
“2018 was a special year in sales, due to the African swine fever in China. We had a drop in the level of imports, after 94 million tons we dropped to 83 million tons ”, explains Pessôa. The expectation is that it would take 2 to 3 years for the Chinese market to resume soy consumption, but what we have seen is that this recovery took place more sharply. The Chinese government managed to revert, even with the importation of live animals and, above all, that traditional pig farming, was replaced by a modern pig farming, consuming soybean meal and corn, which led us to the new record: 98 million tons of soybeans ”.
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According to the director of Agroconsult, China returned to the level much earlier than expected, stimulated even by the fish and chicken market. “Brazil is going to export around 81 million tons, stimulating one of the lowest stocks in history. Coming to import soybeans, due to this 'sweeping silo' movement, he adds by warning that part of the consumption will be in the domestic market.
The president of Aprosoja / MS, André Dobashi, confirms the advance of Brazilian domestic demand. “We will have an increase in this consumption in Mato Grosso do Sul. Major projects under development, related to swine and fish farming are advancing, in São Gabriel do Oeste, Rio Verde de MT, Itaporã and Selvíria, in addition to the prospects for other investments for corn consumption , heating demand ”.
The exchange rate for the next year, according to the one presented in the Central Bank report, will not be less than R $ 5 per dollar. “This means that we will maintain the devaluation of the Brazilian currency and we will have an interest rate that we never live with. Living in a more favorable situation, with relatively low interest rates ”, says Pessôa.
“We are experiencing extraordinary soy prices. In the Port of Paranaguá, it reaches over R $ 140, and also prizes, which are not a record, but even as a cooling of the commercial war, we have a significant prize, this shows high international demand. And this premium should only fall when the next harvest begins to be harvested ”, completes the leader of Agroconsult, concluding that by the end of the year, Brazil should lose little of its competitiveness for American soybeans, which should be resumed in the middle January 2021.