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Grain production is expected to exceed 268 million tons in the 2020/21 harvest

Posted by Marina
The new crop in Brazil should surpass the record obtained in the season just finished by 4.2%. According to the 1st Survey of the 2020/21 grain harvest released by Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab) this Thursday (8), production is estimated at 268.7 million tons, surpassing about 11 million tons the record of 257.7 million tons from the last harvest.

The study also points to growth in the cultivated area, in the order of 1.3%. The expectation is that in this harvest the planting will occupy about 66.8 million hectares, which corresponds to 879.5 thousand hectares more.

Soy production is estimated at 133.7 million tons and maintains Brazil as the world's largest producer of oilseeds. The total corn harvest is expected to reach 105.2 million tons, also the largest in the historical series - an increase of 2.6% over the previous one.

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The area cultivated with rice is expected to increase 1.6%, but the Conab team estimates that productivity may not be as good as that of the last harvest. If the reduction of 4.2% in the volume harvested per hectare is confirmed, the national rice production will be 10.885 million tons, adjusted to the forecast consumption. Grain exports, in turn, may decrease by around 400 thousand tons.

Bean production is spread over three harvests and, for this reason, may have greater adjustments than other crops throughout the year. The stimulus for a harvest is influenced by the results of the previous harvest. Based on current data, Conab estimates production also similar to consumption. The area may slightly increase, but productivity may decline. In the balance sheet, the sum of the three harvests is expected at 3.126 million tonnes, which would mean a 3.2% decrease over last season.

As for feather cotton, a drop in area and productivity is projected, with production expected to be limited to 2.8 million tons of feather, a 6.2% reduction over the previous harvest.

Exports - Even with the difficulties caused by the pandemic of COVID-19, exports of cotton plumes are moving towards a record. Until September this year, the total exported was 1.2 million tons, 49% more than the accumulated in the same period last year. Regarding corn, for the current crop year, the export forecast was maintained at 34.5 million tons. In September, shipments reached 6.6 million tons, 2.6% more than in the same period last year. For soybeans, the expectation of selling to the foreign market is around 82 million tons for this year; for the next, about 85 million tons are expected, which would represent an increase of 3.7%. Support would be given by the exchange rate, which may remain high in the coming months.

Click here for more information on the 1st Grain Crop Survey 2020/2021.