- Posted by Rafael Moro
Brazil will not only have a late soybean harvest in the 2020/21 harvest, due to the delay in planting, but when it begins to intensify, at the end of January, it is possible that up to 70% of the production expected for the season is already commercialized. , evaluated on Thursday the consultancy StoneX.
This means that soybean prices, which exceeded R $ 160 per bag at the port of Paranaguá (PR) this week due to low availability, an unprecedented level, should have little relief when harvesting work begins.
The delay in planting due to the delay in regularizing the spring rains this year, however, does not represent problems for productivity or the size of the planted area for now, since the crop should be sown within the proper window for the oilseed, he said. StoneX market intelligence analyst Ana Luiza Lodi told Reuters.
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The consultancy, therefore, is maintaining its projected area growth of 3% compared to the previous season, to a record of almost 38 million hectares, as it predicted at the beginning of the month in its monthly revaluation, which would result in a record harvest of 132 , 6 million tons, up 7% compared to the previous cycle.
The assessment takes into account investments that are being made in the field, in view of record prices and strong sales fixations.
In StoneX's accounts, the producer has already sold 53% of Brazilian production in advance, or more than 70 million tons, a volume higher than that of Argentina, the third world producer after the USA and Brazil.
"It has to see how the producer will behave, with these climate issues, he ends up getting more restrained. But in three months, when the harvest begins, something between 60% and 70% of the harvest may already be sold," he said. the analyst.
"Prices may, when the harvest gains strength, drop, but nothing so significant, because we are going to start the 2020/21 harvest with significant volumes sold," he said.
The analyst also said that the delay in planting the country, the largest global producer and exporter of soybeans, has led some producers to renegotiate soybean deliveries previously scheduled for January.
Many of them, according to market reports, she said, are postponing deliveries until February, when the harvest tends to be more concentrated.
Despite the greater concentration of the beginning of the harvest in February, the analyst said she did not believe in logistical problems and in the ports, due to the investments made recently to improve the flow.
"There should be no problems in ports, there may be an increase in freight costs, but there should be no lack of logistics," he commented.
However, Brazilian soybeans will begin shipping a little later, which should reinforce the export window of the United States, he recalled.
"So much so that there is already a producer renegotiating contracts, renegotiating to deliver in February", he stressed.
While in 2019/20 Brazil had, at the end of January, 10% of the harvest harvested, and in 2018/19, 20% of the harvest carried out, in the current season with "great certainty" less than 10% of the projected soybeans will be available. the cycle, exemplified the analyst.
For Ana Luiza, soybean crushers are aware that January is traditionally not a month of great supply. But this season, the low supply of the previous harvest, after strong exports and high domestic consumption, will intensify the dispute with exporters.
"We are going to end 2020 with practically no soy, so January, the longer it takes for the new crop to enter the market, the more it tightens the supply restriction," she said, evaluating that, although the rains begin to regularize for planting, it will not be possible take the delay.
Mato Grosso, which usually leads the harvest work, had planted less than 10% of the area until last Friday, compared to more than 40% in the same period last year.
The consultancy also did not change its projections for maize first harvest, with a harvest estimated by StoneX at 27.9 million tons, but is monitoring a drought in Rio Grande do Sul, an important producer of the cereal in the summer.
Regarding the second crop, planted after the soybean harvest, Ana Luiza said that the delay is worrying, but commented that producers intend to expand the area in the face of good prices, and should advance more or less depending on the weather signals about the extension or not. the rains.
Source: Notícias Agrícolas