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Financial market reaffirms expectation of fall of 4.81% of GDP in 2020

Posted by Rafael Moro

Financial market analysts maintained their forecast of a 4.81% drop in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year, according to the Focus survey carried out weekly with the main financial institutions and released on Tuesday (03) by the Central Bank, informs the "Xinhua" agency. The projection for GDP growth for 2021 was reduced from 3.42 to 3.34%.

Institutions raised their estimate for the inflation index this year from 2.99 to 3.02% and from 3.10 to 3.11% for next year. The forecasts are within the official target, which is 4% in 2020 and 3.75% in 2021, with a tolerance range of 1.5 percentage points up or down.

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The forecast for the basic interest rate Selic was kept unchanged, ending the year at the current level of 2%, and for the end of 2021 it was raised from 2.50 to 2.75%. The projection for the exchange rate is R $ 5.45 per dollar at the end of this year and R $ 5.20 per dollar at the end of next year.

For the trade balance (result of total exports minus imports), analysts projected US $ 58.7 billion for 2020 and US $ 55 billion for 2021. The forecast for the entry of foreign direct investments in Brazil is US $ 50 billion for 2020 and $ 65 billion for 2021.

*This text was translated from brazilian portuguese by a machine