The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) released, on Thursday (8), the organ's projection for the 2020/21 grain harvest. According to the data, Brazilian production should reach 264.9 million tons, 4.2% or 10.7 million tons above that obtained in 2020 (254.1 million tons). The projection for March is 0.7% higher than in February, with an additional 1.7 million tons.
The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) points out that the area to be harvested is 67.7 million hectares, 3.5% (2.3 million hectares) greater than that of 2020 and 1.1% (766 , 4 thousand hectares) higher than the forecast in the previous month.
Rice, corn and soybeans, the three main products in this group, together account for 92.9% of the production estimate and occupy 87.9% of the area to be harvested. In relation to 2020, there were increases of 5.1% in the corn area (3.0% in the first harvest and 5.9% in the second) and 4.1% in the soy area. But there were declines in the area of herbaceous cotton (-12.0%) and rice (-0.1%).
For soybeans, the production estimate hit a new record: 131.8 million tons, an increase of 8.5% compared to 2020. In March, there were adjustments in the production estimates in several states, especially the growth of 1.8% in Mato Grosso, 2.2% in Goiás, 1.2% in Bahia, 2.8% in Minas Gerais, 0.7% in Rio Grande do Sul and 14.2% in the Pará. The Rio Grande do Sul harvest is recovering from the problems caused by the drought in 2020 and is growing by 74.0%, returning to normal levels. Some important producers show a drop in the average yield of crops, due to climatic issues, as is the case of Mato Grosso (-3.6%), Paraná (-5.0%), Goiás (-4.0%) and São Paulo (-5.4%).
For corn, a 0.2% drop in production is expected (4.4% less in the first harvest and 1.3% more in the second), reaching 103.0 million tons. In the first harvest, production was estimated at 25.4 million tons. The most intense falls were observed in Goiás (-5.9%), Distrito Federal (-11.1%), Santa Catarina (-20.3%), Rio Grande do Norte (-9.6%), Paraná ( -3.1%), and Mato Grosso do Sul (-3.3%). In relation to 2020, there was a decrease of 7.1% in the average yield (5,048 kg / ha).
For the 2nd harvest, the production estimate was 77.6 million tons. The largest producers of 2nd harvest corn, in 2021, should be Mato Grosso, with 33.2 million tons and a 42.7% share in the national total; Paraná, with 13.4 million tons and 17.2% share in the national total. Mato Grosso do Sul, with a production of 10.0 million tons, and Goiás, with 9.7 million tons, should participate with 12.9% and 12.4% of national production, respectively.
For rice, 11.1 million tons are estimated, an increase of 0.2%. This production must be sufficient to supply the Brazilian domestic market. Rio Grande do Sul is responsible for 70.3% of the national production and should produce 7.7 million tons, an increase of 1.3% in relation to the previous month, but a decrease of 0.8% in relation to 2020. Already Santa Catarina's production, of 1.2 million tons, should decline 4.8% in relation to 2020.
In beans it should be 3.0 million tons, an estimate 2.6% higher than that of February. The area to be harvested, of 2.8 million hectares, increased 2.5% and the average yield, of 1,094 kg / ha, increased 0.1% in the month. Paraná (24.7%), Minas Gerais (18.4%), Goiás (10.6%), Mato Grosso (7.7%), São Paulo (6.9%), Bahia (6.6%) and Ceará (3.9%) have the largest share in this production.
The 1st bean crop, which accounts for 41.4% of production, was estimated at 1.3 million tons, up 0.8% compared to February's estimate. The 2nd bean crop, which accounts for 40.0% of the total, was estimated at 1.2 million 210.7 thousand tons, an increase of 5.0% compared to the February estimate. Regarding the 3rd bean crop, the production estimate was 563.0 thousand tons, an increase of 1.7% compared to the previous forecast.
By region, the Midwest leads the harvest with a 45.5% share. In second place is the South region, with 31.4%. Following is the Southeast (10.1%), Northeast (8.8%) and North (4.2%). By State, Mato Grosso leads, with a 27.2% share, followed by Paraná (15.8%), Rio Grande do Sul (13.3%), Goiás (9.7%), Mato Grosso do Sul ( 8.3%) and Minas Gerais (6.4%), which together accounted for 80.7% of the national total.
The main winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oats and barley. The estimate for wheat production was 7.3 million tons, an increase of 16.9% in relation to the previous year, with the average yield expected to increase by 17.6%.
The South region is expected to account for 88.9% of the national wheat production in 2021. In Paraná, the largest producer (51.4% of the total), production was estimated at 3.7 million tons, with an increase of 19.7% compared to 2020. Rio Grande do Sul, the second largest producer (35.4% of the total), should produce 2.6 million tons, an increase of 22.1%.
The estimated production of oats was 994.9 thousand tons, an increase of 7.5% compared to 2020. Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná, the largest Brazilian cereal producers, estimate to produce 740.5 thousand tons and 186.7 thousand tons , respectively.
For barley, the estimate is 428.4 thousand tons, an increase of 7.9% in relation to the previous month, and growth of 13.1% in relation to the previous year. The largest producers of the cereal are Paraná, with 303.6 thousand tons, and Rio Grande do Sul, with 111.1 thousand tons, which together represent 96.8% of the national total.
By: Eliza Maliszewski | Agrolink
This text was automatically translated from Portuguese.