- Posted by Mateus Ramos
Cotton from the 2020/21 harvest is still in the field and producers in Mato Grosso have already started planning for the next harvest. Input purchases tend to intensify in the next semester. According to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea), however, the cost of production has been increasing since December. In April, the effective operating cost (COE) reached the mark of R$ 12,805.84/ha, an increase of 3.33% in the monthly comparison.
"Thus, it is important that the producer is attentive to the balance point of the plume and, in order to be able to cover his COE, considering the same productivity of the 20/21 harvest of 116.20 @/ha, it is necessary to negotiate his production at an average of R$ 110.21/@, an increase of 4.31% compared to March ", says the bulletin.
When evaluating the export parity for the December 22 contract, it is noted that, despite the bullish impact of the dollar on input expenses, this, coupled with ICE quotations, has also given support to the appreciation of future plume prices, enabling quotes above breakeven.
The global plume supply and demand report released last Wednesday (12) by the USDA brought an update on the 20/21 crop and the first projection for the 21/22 crop. The main adjustment in the 20/21 harvest is in the consumption of the feather in the season, which decreased by 0.39% in relation to the April report, due to the cut in domestic demand in India, which, in turn, reflects the restriction measures against Covid-19, limiting the capacity of the textile industries in the country. In the first perspective of the 21/22 crop, global production advanced 5.56% compared to the 20/21 crop, estimated at 26.00 million tons, guided by increases in supply from the USA, Brazil and India.
Global consumption increased 890 thousand tons in this estimate, with a total of 26.45 million tons expected, exceeding the production expected for the harvest. Finally, the final stock fell 2.32% in the annual comparison, projected at 19.81 million tons, the lowest in the last two years.
By: Eliza Maliszewski | Agrolink
This text was automatically translated from Portuguese.