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May had little movement with low wheat supply in Brazil

Posted by Rafael Moro

Image: Pixabay

The Brazilian wheat market had little movement in May. The supply is low in both Brazil and Argentina. The producers are well capitalized, with no immediate need to negotiate, and focus their efforts on planting work.

In the past few weeks, the market has followed the downturn in prices in Argentina. This, added to the dollar, which operates close to R$ 5.30, favors the competitiveness of the Argentine product in demand by the industry in Brazil. Still, the offer is low and liquidity is too, which limits further variations.

Planting reaches 58% of the area in Paraná. In Rio Grande do Sul, in its initial phase, there is still no percentage indication at the state level. In Argentina, according to the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange, jobs reach 10.1%.

Global harvest

The International Grain Council (IGC) indicated a projection for the global grain harvest in 2021/22 of 2.292 billion tonnes. Last month, production for the next season was estimated at 2.287 billion tonnes. The 2020/21 harvest was estimated at 2.22 billion tons.

According to the CIG, wheat production is estimated at 790 million tons, the same volume as in April. For the previous season, the Council projected 774 million tonnes.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the world wheat crop in 2020/21 is estimated at 776.1 million tons, against 776.49 million tons in April. For 2021/22, the first estimate is 788.98 million tons.

Global final stocks in 2020/21 were estimated at 294.67 million tons, down from the 295.52 million tons estimated last month. The market expected 295.1 million tonnes. For 2021/22, final reserves are forecast at 294.96 million tons. The market expected 299.4 million tons.

By: Gabriel Nascimento | Safras & Mercado

This text was automatically translated from Portuguese.