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USDA forecasts lower global oilseeds production

Posted by Eduardo Moreno

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Global oilseeds production is expected to decline in 2021/22, according to forecasts by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported by World Grain on 23 September.

The decline was due to the combination of uncertainty due to the continuing COVID-19 pandemic, fluctuating crude oil prices and the weather, according to the report.

In the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report on 12 August, projected total global oilseeds production in 2021/22 was forecast at 629.52M tonnes, down from the 635.41M tonnes estimate a month before.

The USDA put 2021/22 world soybean production at 383.63M tonnes, down from the previous forecast of 385.22M tonnes.

US soybean output was reduced to 118.08M tonnes from 119.88M tonnes.

However, forecast production in Argentina and Brazil, remained unchanged at 52M tonnes and 144M respectively.

“Foreign oilseed production is reduced 3.6M tonnes to 501.4M, reflecting lower canola production for Canada and sunflowerseed for Russia,” the USDA said. “Partly offsetting that is higher Ukrainian sunflowerseed.”

Canada’s canola crop was lowered 4.2M tonnes to 16M tonnes due to drought in the Canadian Prairies, the USDA said. Russian sunflowerseed production was lowered 1M tonnes to 15.5M tonnes as pockets of dryness and extreme heat in key regions reduced overall crop prospects.

However, the USDA had raised its forecast for Ukrainian sunflowerseed output due to a wet spring, followed by “beneficial rains during June and July in southern Ukraine”.

Meanwhile, the USDA also lowered its latest forecast for global rapeseed supply, the Union for the Promotion of Oil and Protein Plants (UFOP) reported on 22 September.

World rapeseed production in the crop year 2021/22 was forecast by USDA at 68.17M tonnes, a drop of 1.8M tonnes compared to the August estimate.

The new estimate represented a 4.12M tonne drop over the previous year and would be the lowest level in nine years, UFOP said.

According to research by Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft, the EU-27 remained the biggest rapeseed producer while heat and extreme dryness in Canadian rapeseed-producing regions were hitting Canada's output.

Global consumption was also lowered 0.76M tonnes to 70.31M tonnes with reductions for Canada, China and the EU-27 not offset by higher consumption in Japan.

The USDA forecast 2021/22 global ending stocks of rapeseed at 3.65M tonne, which would represent a 40% decline on the previous year and would also be the lowest level on record, UFOP said.

In the USDA outlook, exports were forecast at 13.56M tonnes, down 0.55M tonnes compared to the previous month.

While Canada in particular would supply less due to reduced production, the export outlook for the EU-27 was raised, according to the report.

Despite the slump in production, Canada was set to remain the main exporter with exports of 5.8M, the report said.

Source: Oils & Fats Internacional (OFI)