Corn productivity losses worry producers

Perdas de produtividade no milho preocupam produtores
Image: Pixabay

Corn prices remain stagnant in Brazil, according to data from the weekly analysis by the International Center for Economic Analysis and Agricultural Market Studies (CEEMA). The Gaucho average closed the week at R$ 51.57/bag, while the main local markets remained at R$ 50.00. In other Brazilian regions, prices ranged between R$ 37.00 and R$ 55.00/bag. It is worth highlighting that, in many regions, corn off-season has been facing climate problems in the Brazilian Center-South. Among them are Paraná, the south of Mato Grosso do Sul and the south of São Paulo. In these areas, productivity losses are already considered a certainty by producers. Summer corn would be harvested in 82% of the area at the end of March, according to AgRural, while in Rio Grande do Sul it reached 76% of the area, against 72% in the historical average, according to Emater/RS.

In this national context, there is a decline in estimates of the final Brazilian corn harvest, with the summer harvest expected to reach 24 million tons, including the North/Northeast, that is, 13.7% less than what was recorded in the previous year. The second harvest would reach 90.9 million tons, that is, 16.3% below that recorded in the previous year. Thus, in total for the two harvests, the final volume would reach 114.9 million tons, or 15.8% below that harvested in the previous year. In regions of western Paraná, there are properties with 100% of corn losses and many with 50%, according to Datagro Grãos.

Drop in the corn harvest and impacts on the Brazilian market

For some analysts, the second harvest will not exceed 85 million tons this year. As a result, total cereal production in Brazil would drop by more than 20 million tons in 2023/24, according to Brandalizze Consulting. In general, the market expects a harvest of between 85 and 96 million tons. In addition to the climate, pests are also attacking cornfields in many regions, such as leafhoppers and whiteflies.

Finally, according to Imea, Mato Grosso is expected to consume 14.7 million tons of corn, especially in the manufacture of ethanol. This volume, if confirmed, will be 6.3% higher than the previous year. Only with the manufacture of ethanol the volume could reach 11.6 million tons. On the other hand, demand from other States, for Mato Grosso corn, is expected to fall by 22.1% and remain at 4.54 million tons, as well as exports, which are expected to fall by 18.3%, being estimated at 24.4 million tons. tons. Thus, the expected demand for corn from Mato Grosso was reduced by 12.1%, remaining at 44.5 million tons in 2023/24. Even so, given the reduction in production, the final corn stock in Mato Grosso is expected to fall to 785,170 tons, that is, 61.1% lower than that recorded at the end of 2022/23.

In Mato Grosso do Sul, according to Famasul (Federation of Agriculture and Livestock of Mato Grosso do Sul), the planting of the second crop reached, at the beginning of April, 83.7% of the expected area, being in line with what happened in the year previous, with 73% of the crops being good, 16% regular and 10% bad. In total, the state of Mato Grosso do Sul will sow an area of 2.2 million hectares, that is, 5.8% below that recorded at the same time in the previous year. The expected average productivity is 86.3 bags/hectare, a reduction of 14.2% over the previous year. As a result, a harvest of 11.4 million tons is expected, that is, 19.2% below that recorded in the previous year.

Source: Seane Lennon | agrolink

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