After significant growth of 21% in 2023, the GDP of the soybean and biodiesel chain is expected to fall by 5.33% in 2024, according to data released by Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics) at Esalq/USP, in partnership with the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove). The main cause of this decline is the failure of the soybean harvest and its negative impacts on agribusiness services.
However, the agribusiness sector is expected to record a positive performance. This is driven by the increase in biodiesel production and soybean meal exports. This expected growth in agribusiness, estimated at 2.95%, will be crucial to mitigate the decline in the GDP of the production chain as a whole. The GDP of the soy and biodiesel is expected to reach R$422 billion in 2024, representing R$181 billion from agribusiness and R$3.9 billion from the Brazilian economy.
The forecast is for a sharp drop of 13.07% in soybean GDP and 4.28% in agribusiness. In contrast, the agribusiness segment is expected to show advances in all sectors: 0.59% for crushing and refining, 2.6% for feed and a significant growth of 36.47% for biodiesel. The growing demand for biofuels boosts the subsegment's GDP, positively influencing the expected results for crushing and refining.
However, relative prices in the production chain fell when comparing the first quarters of 2023 and 2024, resulting in an estimated 33.15% decline in real income. Even with the significant decrease, the GDP value projected for 2024 still exceeds pre-pandemic levels.
Source: Aline Merladete | agrolink
