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“It is estimated that the state of Paraná produces around 3.0 million tons, thus signaling a deficit of between 600-700 thousand tons, plus what is taken to São Paulo, Goiás and Minas Gerais. This, of course, if consumption remains unchanged. TF Agroeconomic analysts reached the same conclusion regarding wheat in Rio Grande do Sul, when the state reached the mark of 1.5 million tons of grain committed to export, with a good chance of reaching 2.0 MT.
Even if the state actually produces 3.5 million tons, if it reaches this mark and sales to other states stop at 200 thousand tons, there will be a shortage of approximately 430 thousand tons at the end of the 2021/22 commercial year, and there will be a need of heavy imports”, he adds.
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In this context, the prices of wheat imported from this country already exceed R$ 2,000.00/tonne CIF for the interior mills in the three southern states. “Paraguayan wheat, for now, would be more competitive, reaching around R$ 1,760.00 /t in Ponta Grossa and much less in the mills of Western Paraná. Uruguayan wheat would also arrive (see RS table below) at around R$ 1,790.00 CIF mill. Expensive today, but cheap in a few weeks”, he concludes.
By: Leonardo Gottems | agrolink
