The quotations of the wheat in Chicago fell this week, as indicated in the weekly analysis by the International Center for Economic Analysis and Agricultural Market Studies (Ceema). On Thursday (15), the bushel of the cereal, for the first month quoted, closed at US$ 5.28, a drop in relation to the US$ 5.37 recorded in the previous week.
According to Ceema’s analysis, the supply and demand report released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) on August 12 brought new data for the 2024/25 marketing year, including a slight reduction in US wheat production, which is now projected at 53.9 million tonnes. The United States revised ending stocks to 22.5 million tonnes, almost a million below the July estimate, but still above the 19.1 million tonnes recorded a year earlier.
Global wheat production reached 798.3 million tonnes, beating July’s forecast by 2 million and last year’s by 10 million. However, global ending stocks are expected to fall to 256.6 million tonnes from 262.4 million tonnes a year earlier, the weekly analysis showed.
Production projections and price adjustments
According to Ceema, projections for South America indicate that Brazilian wheat production should reach 9.5 million tons. While Argentina is expected to produce 18 million tons. Argentine wheat exports were estimated at 11.5 million tons for the next commercial year.
In the United States, the winter wheat harvest had reached 93% of planted area, thus exceeding the historical average of 91%. In addition, spring wheat has already been harvested on 18% of the area, slightly below the historical average of 21%.
Meanwhile, in Ukraine, with 97% of the harvested area, the volume of wheat reached 20.9 million tons. On the other hand, Russia, the world's largest exporter of cereals, has again reduced export tariffs, this time by 42%, to US$$ 2.90 per ton. The measure aims, after all, to increase the profitability of local producers amid the decline in global prices. This new export tariff is the lowest since Russia began calculating it in rubles in July 2022. Reuters reports that the country has been steadily reducing the tax on wheat since February 2024.
Source: Seane Lennon | agrolink
