Understand how soybeans are expected to fall, even more, this week


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Two strongly negative factors for the soybean complex entered the market this week, according to TF Agroeconomic Consulting. “We are referring to the reduction in the use of biofuels in diesel in Brazil and the increase in Brazilian crushing to compensate for the drop in crushing in China”, say market analysts.

“The effects of these two factors will be a drop in soybean prices, because, if initially the interest of industries in raw material to crush will increase, in a second moment this increase in industrial activity should cause an increase in supply and a probable surplus of oil. and bran in the markets and a consequent drop in prices for the entire complex in the medium and long term”, they explain.

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On September 6th, the Brazilian government decided this Monday (11/10) to reduce the mandatory mixture of biodiesel in diesel oil from 13% to 10%, during the 82nd Biodiesel Auction, intended to supply the months of November and December of 2021, which was considered by producers of the input to be the biggest setback ever applied to the country's biofuels policy.

On the other hand, experts highlight, the news of reduced industrial activity in China sounded like a knife to Brazilian crushers, who reduced prices in volume deals this week.

“It is speculated that, as a result of the reduction, trading companies that have crushing branches in Brazil and China, such as Dreyfus, Cofco, Cargill and others, have been asked to crush more, either due to latent demand in the country, or due to participation global business, where good results here are expected to offset crushing losses there”, concludes the TF.

By: Leonardo Gottems | agrolink

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