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The profitability perspective is more than 100% between the total production cost and the current soybean price for May 2021, according to TF Agroeconomic Consulting. The projection takes into account the quotation value of R$ 171.00 in the port lot market, minus R$ 6 for freight and minus R$ 5 difference for the over-the-counter market.
Furthermore, highlights the TF team of market analysts, there is a good chance that prices on the Chicago Stock Exchange (CBOT) and on the international market will fall due to the possibility of an increase in planted area in the United States. “Our recommendation to Brazilian soybean farmers is to enjoy the current profit without fear of being happy”, they point out.
“Even if, eventually (it will be very difficult) the price rises a little, ensuring a profit greater than 100% will have been worth it in the midst of an imprecise scenario about the future, which has more chance of falling than of rising on average. long term”, add the Consultoria analysts.
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BIGGER CROP
In turn, AgResource Brasil Consulting updated its projection for the Brazilian soybean harvest from 128 million tons to 129.9 million tons, representing an increase of 1.48%, despite planting problems and irregular weather in several states: “The increase in production was driven by the larger planted area (3.93% compared to the 19/20 cycle) and by productivity which, despite the drought at the beginning of planting in the Central-West, boosted the numbers.
"The harvest will be a record, but far from the peaks of around 135 million tons, mainly due to the rains in Mato Grosso and drought in Rio Grande do Sul. Losses in the harvest and in the final stretch of this cycle will appear in the coming weeks, but the total to be produced in Brazil should not grow in the final stretch”, conclude the analysts at AgResource Brasil.
By: Leonardo Gottems | agrolink
