Fry: Global palm oil output to recover in H1 2017

Fry: ‘The 2017 first half rebound will almost offset the 2016 first half collapse.’

 

 

Palm oil analyst says this will happen as El Nino effects fade

KUALA LUMPUR: Global palm oil production will recover in 2017, increasing by four million tonnes in the first half of next year from the same time in 2016, said leading industry analyst James Fry, after the crop-damaging El Nino weather event reduced output this year.

Rising palm oil production could dampen benchmark palm oil prices, which hit a five-month high on tight market supplies in early trade on Wednesday.

Palm futures rose 0.2 % to RM2,683 (US$653) per tonne at the midday break yesterday, up 3.4% so far this week.

 
 

“The 2017 first half rebound will almost offset the 2016 first half collapse,” said Fry, chairman of commodities consultancy LMC International, in a speech at the industry conference Globoil India yesterday.

Fry also forecasts a rise in global palm production in the second half of 2017 by over two million tonnes from the corresponding period this year.

2016 palm oil production was impacted by the El Nino, a warming of the Eastern Pacific Ocean waters which brings dry weather across South-East Asia and lowers palm yields in top producers Indonesia and Malaysia.

Fry last forecast in March that global palm oil production could fall by over two million tonnes this year, and saw Southeast Asian output declining by 4 million tonnes.

For the last quarter of 2016, Fry estimates Malaysian inventories to climb to a range between 1.75 to 1.80 million tonnes.

“Crude palm oil output will resume year-on-year growth, but we have the seasonal slowdown after November,” he said.

“Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) stocks will settle at 1.75-1.80 million tonnes in October-December, and will then fall back until they soar from Q2 onwards.”

Palm oil end-stocks in Malaysia, the world’s No. 2 producer after Indonesia, fell to a near six-year low of 1.46 million tonnes in August, according to data from industry regulator MPOB.

Indonesian output may fall by 0.6 million tonnes in the third quarter this year, but could rise by 0.2 million tonnes from October to December, Fry said.

Fry also forecast that CPO prices would ease to $650 a tonne on a free-on-board basis in November and December, and “move up briefly in January to February” before falling to US$550 next year, based on a Brent crude oil forecast of US$45 per barrel.

CPO was trading at US$705 a tonne on a free-on-board basis yesterday.— Reuters

Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn

Aboissa apoia

Fique por dentro das novidades
e melhores oportunidades do
agronegócio – inscreva-se já!

Ásia

Arábia Saudita

Bangladesh

China

Singapura

Coréia do Sul

Emirados Árabes Unidos

Filipinas

Índia

Indonésia

Iraque

Jordânia

Líbano

Malásia

Omã

Qatar

Turquia

Vietnã

Hong Kong

América

Argentina

Bolívia

Brasil

Canadá

Chile

Colômbia

Equador

Estados Unidos

Guatemala

Ilhas Virgens Britânicas

México

Nicarágua

Panamá

Paraguai

Perú

Uruguai

Suriname

Venezuela

República Dominicana

Costa Rica

Cuba

África

África do Sul

Argélia

Camarões

Costa do Marfim

Egito

Libéria

Marrocos

Serra Leoa

Sudão

Quênia

Tunísia

Ilhas Maurício

Europa

Albânia

Alemanha

Bélgica

Bulgária

Espanha

Finlândia

França

Inglaterra

Italia

Lituânia

Polônia

Portugal

Rússia

Turquia

Sérvia

Suécia

Suíça

Ucrânia

Chipre

Estônia

Irlanda

Romênia

Oceania

Austrália

Nova Zelândia

Solicite uma cotação!

Preencha o formulário e obtenha atendimento para suas necessidades comerciais.
Nossos especialistas estão prontos para oferecer soluções personalizadas.

*No momento não estamos trabalhando com intermediários.

Ao informar meus dados, eu concordo com a Política de Privacidade.